Should I Sell My Investment in Novo Nordisk?
I’ve been putting off writing this one. Partly because I didn’t want to face it, and partly because every time I sit down to look at my Novo Nordisk position, the number just looks worse. As of today, I’m down about 27% on my total investment in NVO. It stings. Not in a “there goes my retirement” way — luckily this isn’t a huge chunk of my portfolio — but in a “why didn’t I listen to my gut earlier” kind of way.
So I decided to do what I should have done months ago: actually lay out the bull and bear case, look at the data, and decide whether to hold, buy more, or cut my losses.
What’s Been Happening
If you haven’t been following the Novo Nordisk saga, here’s the short version: the stock has cratered from above $140 in mid-2024 to about $37 today. That’s roughly a 73% decline from its peak. The company that was once the undisputed king of the obesity drug market is now fighting fires on multiple fronts.
The most recent blow came just this week. Goldman Sachs downgraded NVO from Buy to Neutral, slashing their price target from $63 to $41. The reason? CagriSema — Novo’s much-hyped next-generation obesity drug — failed to match Eli Lilly’s Zepbound in the head-to-head REDEFINE-4 trial. CagriSema achieved 23% weight loss over 84 weeks, which sounds impressive until you learn Zepbound hit 25.5%. More importantly, CagriSema missed the statistical bar for “non-inferiority,” meaning the trial essentially concluded that Lilly’s drug is meaningfully better.
Goldman slashed their CagriSema peak sales estimate from $11.8 billion to $5 billion and cut their topline forecasts for 2026-2030 by an average of 6%. Analyst James Quigley called it a “show-me story” now.
On top of that, Novo announced it would drop the US list prices for Ozempic, Wegovy, and Rybelsus to a uniform $675 per month from January 2027. That’s nearly a 50% cut for Wegovy (from $1,349) and about 34% for Ozempic. Good for patients. Rough for the share price in the near term. Their 2026 guidance already shocked the market — sales expected to decline around 6%, well below what analysts were expecting.
The Bear Case: Why It Might Be Time to Sell
Let’s start with the uncomfortable truth. The original thesis for buying Novo was simple: they owned the obesity drug market with Wegovy and Ozempic, and demand was virtually unlimited. That thesis has taken serious damage.
Competition is winning. Eli Lilly’s Zepbound overtook Wegovy in Q4 2025 sales, and CagriSema — which was supposed to be Novo’s answer — can’t beat it in a head-to-head. Lilly’s revenue has grown 135% over the past three years versus Novo’s 77%.
Pricing is compressing fast. The voluntary price cuts coming in 2027, combined with Most Favoured Nation agreement concessions, will materially hit the top line. Revenue is expected to decline in 2026. For a growth stock, that’s poison.
Semaglutide patents start expiring. Key markets like Brazil, Canada, and China face generic competition from 2026 onwards. At least five manufacturers are working on semaglutide generics in China alone.
Compounding is eating market share. Compounders in the US grew to roughly match Novo’s own Wegovy business — more than a million patients. Even though the FDA has ended the drug shortage designation (making compounding technically illegal), enforcement will take time.
The P/E ratio of 10.3 looks cheap — but might be a trap. At first glance, a P/E of 10 for a pharma company seems like a screaming buy. But that P/E reflects 2025 earnings. If revenue declines in 2026 as guided, earnings will follow. A “cheap” stock can stay cheap for a long time.
The Bull Case: Why I Might Want to Hold (or Even Buy More)
Now for the other side. And I’ll be honest — there are some compelling reasons to stay.
The obesity market is enormous and still barely penetrated. There are roughly 100 million adults with obesity in the US alone. Only about 3 million are currently being treated. We’re in the first or second inning. Price cuts actually help here — they unlock access for millions more patients and potentially drive massive volume growth.
The Wegovy pill is a game changer. Novo became the first company to get an oral GLP-1 approved for obesity when the FDA approved oral semaglutide 25mg in December 2025. The launch has been strong — 170,000 patients in just the first four weeks in the US. This opens up an entirely new segment of patients who don’t want weekly injections.
Amycretin looks very promising. In mid-stage trials, injectable amycretin delivered 14.5% weight loss in diabetes patients over just 36 weeks (with no plateau in sight), and the oral version hit 10.1%. Morningstar’s analyst projects $8 billion in peak sales by 2034. Late-stage trials start in 2026.
UBT251, the triple agonist, showed ~20% weight loss in 24 weeks. That’s from a Phase 2 trial, and it targets three receptors (GLP-1, GIP, and glucagon). Novo paid $2 billion for this asset, and the early data looks competitive with anything on the market.
Revenue is still growing. Despite all the doom, Novo delivered 18% revenue growth in Q1 2025 and 15% growth across the first nine months. Full-year 2025 revenue hit DKK 309 billion, up 6.4% on the prior year. The company generated over DKK 119 billion in operating cash flow across 2025. It’s a cash machine.
Analysts still see major upside. The consensus 12-month price target from TipRanks is $60.50, with a range of $47 to $70. Even Goldman’s lowered $41 target implies about 10% upside from current levels. The average analyst rating is still “Moderate Buy.”
Wegovy is expanding globally. Now launched in 25+ international markets with 137% growth in international obesity sales. China’s Wegovy launch is going “incredibly well” according to management, and Mexico just launched last month.
The Numbers at a Glance
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | ~$37.66 |
| 52-Week High / Low | $91.90 / $36.72 |
| Market Cap | ~$167 billion |
| P/E Ratio (TTM) | 10.3 |
| 2025 Revenue (DKK) | 309 billion (+6.4% YoY) |
| 2026 Guidance | Sales decline ~5-13% |
| Analyst Avg Target | $51-$60 |
| Dividend Yield | ~5% |
My Conclusion
Here’s where I land after going through all of this. The original thesis — that Novo Nordisk was the uncontested GLP-1 leader with uncapped demand — has genuinely weakened. Eli Lilly has caught up and arguably overtaken them on pure efficacy. CagriSema isn’t the slam dunk it was supposed to be. And 2026 is going to be an ugly year on paper.
But selling at a 27% loss when the stock is near its 52-week low, analysts see 30-60% upside, and the company is still growing revenue and generating enormous cash flow? That feels like selling at the worst possible time.
The pipeline isn’t dead. The oral Wegovy launch is working. Amycretin could be a genuine blockbuster by the end of the decade. And the obesity market hasn’t gone away — it’s actually growing faster than ever, even if Novo’s share is under pressure.
I’m going to hold. I’m not buying more — I don’t have the conviction for that right now, and the near-term headwinds are real. But I’m giving the pipeline 12-18 months to play out. If the oral Wegovy launch continues to impress, if amycretin delivers in late-stage trials, and if management navigates the pricing transition, this stock could look very different a year from now.
And if it doesn’t? Well, at least the position is small enough that it’s a lesson, not a disaster.
I am not a financial advisor. This is just me working through my own investing decisions in public. Do your own research.
