The Bull Case for Stocks in 2025

I saw a video today that shows why things can continue the way they have been. It’s a bit long, but worth watching a bit of it.

The basic concepts are that you can’t predict the future. And what happened in the past (including this year), cannot be used to predict the future.

Most of them fall into Newton’s first law of motion: “objects in motion tend to remain in motion unless acted on by an outside force”…

• Just because the stock market has had an amazing year, doesn’t mean next year can’t be amazing too.
• Just because the biggest large cap stocks have had an amazing year, doesn’t mean they won’t continue to do amazing.
• Big companies can still get bigger.
• Just because the US market is the best performing market on the planet, doesn’t mean it won’t be next year.
• Just because another market has done poorly, doesn’t mean it will suddenly start doing well.
• There’s no concept of “these stocks have gone up too far, they’ll probably start doing poorly”.
• Don’t blindly follow headlines or memes.

The whole video is full of 50 examples of this.

Perhaps you thought Palantir was expensive at the start of 2024. Well, the stock is up 4X since then. There’s no metric that you can look at (P/E, P/S, or others) that will tell you when a stock will fall in the next year or go up in the next year.

So perhaps I shouldn’t be worrying about the stock market having a bad year. It’s just as likely to have a good year as a bad year.

And as I’ve said in the past, the history of the stock market is largely up with only minor pauses.