Is It Over?

The stock market has been going higher lately. I believe it was up 9% in July. And here we are in August, and it’s up again.

I think traders are just looking for some relief. We seem to have passed through earnings season with most companies not having too many surprises. (Damn, Intel.) We avoided World War 3 with China, it seems.

This could be short-lived.

We’re starting to see layoffs. Companies like Robin Hood, Walmart, Amazon, and Shopify have announced cutbacks. Are we on the precipice of an increase in unemployment?

Have the central banks in Canada and USA come to the end of big rate hikes? Maybe we have 1 or 2 left in the year, but are we starting to see the upper limit of interest rates? Some say yes, and some say no.

I think this is just a temporary rally. I don’t know for sure if we’ll ever go lower than we did in late June, but I am not sure if we are on the road to recovery yet.

Imagine if the US Fed has another 2%-3% additional rate hikes left? That would be a disaster for the economy.

I like the portfolio gains, absolutely. I can’t wait until we enter a long bull market again. 🙂 But it’s hard to believe this is over.